Hurricane Irma’s Impact on the Location of People and Places

Placed analyzed the location and visitation data generated by residents in the path of Hurricane Irma to gain insights into impacts of what has already proven to be an abnormally active storm season.

 

Foot Traffic to Businesses:  Areas impacted by Hurricane Irma saw quantifiable increases in visitation to grocery stores (2.1x), gas/convenience (1.7x), and pharmacy (1.7x) in the days before expected landfall of Irma. While these visits were expected, unexpectedly visits to Pet Food and Supplies retailers, Diet & Nutritionists businesses, and Sporting Goods stores also saw increased visitation between September 4th through the 7th.

 

Restaurant/QSR locations saw up to 3.7x visitation rates by September 8th as residents began evacuation, or conserved supplies by eating out up until the last minute.  Interestingly, Check Cashing locations saw upwards of 28X the visitation from prior to the hurricane, possibly due to banks being closed and power outages forcing cash only transactions. Wireless retailers also saw significant increases in visitation (1.5x-4x) before, during, and immediately following the storm.

 

Evacuations Before Landfall:  By mapping “away from home” percentages by city by day, we clearly see the alignment to evacuation notices as well as delayed returns for areas where Hurricane Irma caused extended power outages.

 

  • Evacuations Start (Average): 2 days before landfall
  • Population Returns (Average): 3 days after landfall, 5 days after landfall for areas with extended power outages

Distance Traveled:  The metric “distance traveled from home” indicates that the Sept 6th Hurricane Irma path projections, which placed the center of the storm traveling up the Eastern coastline, aligns with the first wave of residents of Miami and Naples opting to leave their home locations and travel distances averaging as much as 260 miles to escape the hurricanes cone of damage.

 

  • Shortest Average Distance Traveled (Pre-Land Fall): 32 miles, Tallahassee Residents
  • Longest Average Distance Traveled (Pre-Land Fall): 295 miles, West Palm Beach Residents

The September 7th announcement of mandatory evacuations for additional cities beginning Sept 8th initiated a second wave of residents departing with Ft Myers-Naples area seeing 73% of residents on the move.

Accurate Location in Limited Supply, Findings from Placed Research

In the same way in which ad viewability was the hot topic issue these past 18 months, Placed anticipates location accuracy to enter into the headlines.  Placed’s research found that on average the accuracy of exchange based locations were on average off by more than 4 city blocks!  Additionally only 1% of bid request are accurate enough to identify store visits.

 

Download Placed’s Accuracy & Bias in Ad Exchange-Derived Location Data White Paper at https://www.placed.com/resources/white-papers/location-accuracy-bias

 

Excerpts from the white paper:

 

Growth in location based advertising is tied to continued growth in mobile usage. Current spend projections for location based targeting are estimated to reach almost $30B by 2020. As spend increases, so will expectations around validating the accuracy of both the location data and the subsequent visitation impact

 

However, there are several well known limitations of exchange-derived location data. First, the

source (e.g., GPS, cell tower, WIFI, IP) and accuracy of a given exchange-derived location data

point is generally unknown without additional validation. Second, given that ad impressions are

served and exchange-derived locations are observed only when the device is in use, there is the

potential for significant measurement bias to exist.

 

High-level results from the location accuracy analysis include:

 

  • The average accuracy of exchange-derived locations is over 4 New York City blocks.
  • After filtering for location accuracy, only 1% of bid requests are useful for in-store measurement (based on a location accuracy < 50 meters).
  • 80% of bid requests are made while people are in between visits—and most of the rest are made at home, limiting viable use of the data for determining store visitation or affinity.

Takeaways from the analysis of bias in exchange-driven location data:

 

  • Exchange-derived locations are only present when the device owner is using the phone and browsing an app that serves ads, thus bid stream data over indexes on location data from Lodging, and Gyms & Fitness Centers– likely due to readily available wifi combined with extended time spent at a given business.
  • Key retail categories such as Fashion, Professional Services (ex. Staples, OfficeMax), Sporting Goods and Computers & Electronics are under-represented in bid data.
  • The skew toward a subset of commercial business categories creates a bias in exchange derived data that requires validation against first party data to ensure corrected weighting.

Most Popular Apps for Clinton and Trump Supporters

The differences between Trump and Clinton supporters extend beyond political view and into the apps that they are more likely to have installed on their smartphone. Utilizing Placed’s double opt-in audience, Placed was able to connect localized voting preferences to apps installed.

 

Using apps as a proxy, Clinton supporters are content generators with messaging and photo apps making up 70% of the list, while Trump supporters are more content consumers with 60% of the list including apps like NFL Mobile, Slacker Radio, Audible, Amazon Music, and Kindle. As it relates to retail, Trump supporters gravitate towards the market leaders with Walmart, the largest retailer in the US, and Amazon, the largest retailer in the US, representing 4 out of the top 10 apps.

 

For both candidates, the most popular businesses in the physical world by candidate preference have very little correlation with their supporters’ digital activities. This separation of offline versus online behaviors even for the same candidate highlights the importance of treating each medium in its own silo, as what works online isn’t necessarily going to work offline.

 

With Trump raising over $26MM in June through online and mail solicitations, it highlights digital as a strong channel to reach his strongest supporters and drive donations. Utilizing this list, Trump can focus fundraising efforts on apps where his supporters are most likely to be found. Clinton’s strength in social applications could represent an opportunity to replicate President Obama’s success in 2012 leveraging social media to drive donations.

 

Clinton Trump Supports Most Popular Apps

Free Burritos Are Driving Chipotle’s Recovery as Measured by Placed

Through a unique combination of location ratings service data and custom survey data, Placed was able to directly measure the change in visits to Chipotle during the frenzy following the restaurant’s E. coli outbreaks.

 

By analyzing location behaviors of consumers sourced from our Placed Insights service over a 13-month period, the data shows a drop in monthly Chipotle visitation that directly correlates with the outbreaks. Chipotle’s share in monthly traffic hit a low of 8.04% during the month of January 2016, a full three months after the first initial outbreak, representing the lowest visitor share over the 13-month period.

 

On February 8th, 2016, Chipotle shut down its nationwide stores to retrain staff on food safety. At the same time, the company launched a campaign to reintroduce customers to the brand with free burritos. Coupons worth a generous total of $70 million in free burritos were given away.

 

The “reintroduction period” with the support of millions of free burritos proved to be a promising tactic as Chipotle’s visitor share in Placed Insights for February and March show a gentle spike. More specifically, the burrito coupons pushed March 2016 visitor share to a level almost as high as that of the previous year (8.81% visitor share in March 2016 vs. 8.86% in March the year prior). Overall, the promotion had a material impact in winning back Chipotle customers.

 

CHI

Digging deeper into Placed Insights data reveals restaurants that benefited from Chipotle’s recent turmoil. In terms of visitor share within the Mexican restaurant category, there were a few notable beneficiaries:

 

Change in Mexican Restaurant Visitor Share, October 2015 vs. December 2015

  • Moe’s Southwest Grill, 5% increase
  • Del Taco, 2% increase

Looking beyond this category, Placed compared two leaders of the “fast-casual revolution,” Chipotle and Panera Bread. Examining overlap in visitation rates through November 2015, Panera Bread visitors were more likely to visit Chipotle than vice versa. However, in December 2015, the visitation points meet, indicating a shift in traffic from Chipotle to Panera.

 

Change in Chipotle & Panera Visitor Share Overlap, October 2015 vs. December 2015

  • % of Chipotle Visitors who also went to Panera grew 7%
  • % of Panera Visitors who also went to Chipotle dropped 3%

 Measuring Perception Across Chipotle Visitors in April 2016

To add some color and tell the whole story behind the numbers, Placed surveyed its audience on their most recent visit to Chipotle to find the ways that public sentiment has changed for the brand:

  • 46% had visited Chipotle within the last two weeks prior to their current visit
  • 19% of respondents cited a free burrito coupon as the primary reason for their visit, while 46% said a craving for Chipotle drove their visit
  • 70% are likely to visit Chipotle again within the next month
  • Over 90% are aware of the E. coli outbreaks, and among those who are aware, 79% visit about the same or more frequently since the news of the E. coli outbreak

Measuring the success of Chipotle’s strategy through free burrito coupons, Placed discovered that visitors who are less likely to frequent Chipotle due to the E. coli outbreaks are more likely to use Chipotle coupons than visitors whose visitation has increased or remained the same:

  • Among those who visit Chipotle less frequently due to the outbreaks, 23% used a free burrito coupon during their visit, which is 27% higher than those whose visits didn’t decrease during this time frame.
  • For coupon users who visit less frequently since the outbreaks, the majority said prior to this Chipotle visit, their last visit was within the last 6 months (29%) or more than 6 months ago (16%)
  • This group of users is also 61% likely to visit Chipotle in the next month

Chipotle’s approach to winning back customers with coupons shows signs of early success with directly measured foot traffic from Placed Insights, and perception metrics from Placed Survey.

Driving (And Measuring) Moments that Matter: BMW Case Study

 

Faced with the pressure of pushing greater sales, BMW needed to drive more potential consumers to its dealerships. However, with only 1.3% of the total Internet population comprised of Luxury Auto Intenders and Endemic Site Visitors, the pool of perspective audiences is limited.

 

In order to reach this niche audience, BMW sought to connect with the right geographic location; it was necessary not only to reach users who have visited BMW or competitor dealerships in recent months, but also reach users near BMW or competitor dealerships in real-time. Constrained by only 339 regional BMW Dealerships nationwide, the challenge was heightened. As a solution, Cadreon developed a programmatic strategy that leveraged data to identify the moments when the niche audience was most receptive to receiving BMW’s message.

 

The process of buying a car sparks emotions that can be influenced to create a connection close to the point of purchase and drive consumers into the dealerships. Using a combination of data and mobile location geo-technology, BMW was able to reach consumers on their smartphones during these moments that matter.

 

With the world’s largest opt-in location panel, Placed was able to measure this emotional connection. Using the Placed lookalike model based on time, geography, OS, age, gender, ethnicity, and income, Placed quantified that BMW’s approach of emotional connection drove physical action, and was able to quantify that the physical action translated into 26.5% lift in BMW dealership visits.

 

Download the case study one-pager here.

BMW

Placed and RetailMeNot Release “The State of Coupons and Role of Mobile” Study

Placed and RetailMeNot partnered once again to deliver a study highlighting the prevalence of the omnichannel shopper. As a follow-up study to last year’s “State of Holiday Shopping,” Placed surveyed 10,843 consumers from its mobile audience to dive deeper into the impact that mobile has on couponing and the shopping planning process.

 

“These results highlight the need for retailers to have an omnichannel presence when it comes to offers,” said David Shim, founder and CEO, Placed. “Print is the medium in which retailers have had decades to optimize against redemption, but the greenfield opportunity exists in mobile and omnichannel coupons.”

 

The study quantified this greenfield opportunity:

  • Mobile apps have become the primary source for deal seeking: 42.8% of consumers typically use mobile to locate coupons, followed by print at 35.9%, and 28.8% across all other platforms.
  • Apps serve as an in-store assistant. 75.0% of consumers used at least one app to assist in their shopping experience while in-store, and 27.5% used at least three apps.

When asked about favorite and most influential shopping apps, consumers affirm the importance of delivering a high-quality omnichannel experience, which is the foundation of consumer reach today.

Amazon took the number one spot as a consumer favorite, followed by RetailMeNot and Walmart. The data highlights not only the popularity of online marketplaces, but also promotional incentives on consumers.

 

Top 5 Favorite/Most Influential Shopping Apps Among US Consumers

  1. Amazon
  2. RetailMeNot
  3. Walmart
  4. Groupon
  5. eBay

Utilizing mobile deals as part of an omnichannel experience is key to converting window shopping into an in-store purchase. eMarketer found that mobile is the driving force behind coupon growth: in 2015, the number of US consumers redeeming mobile coupons reached 97.4 million, representing growth of 18.4% over the year prior.

 

While the study reveals that coupon use for shopping offline (70.2%) continues to exceed coupon use for shopping online (51.4%), digital coupons are quickly approaching the same redemption rate as printed coupons. 63.9% of survey respondents redeem physical/printed coupons, but 58.0% redeem digital coupons and 45.0% redeem coupon codes. Digital channels provide an additional and efficient medium for consumers to find coupons and then print them out prior to shopping, or show them on a phone while in-store.

Capture

With the omnichannel retail trend expected to grow exponentially over the next few years, the most successful retail marketers will be those who employ mobile digital coupons as a major tactic to complete the consumer’s purchase. 2015 was the year of the omnichannel shopper, but 2016 is set to be the year of the omnichannel saver and coupon user.

 

Download the White Paper for more key insights into consumer trends in couponing and the impact that mobile has had in changing the shopping planning process: https://www.placed.com/resources/white-papers/mobile-now-the-standard-in-couponing

Placed and Kantar Release Third Annual Black Friday Report

Black Friday has been a long-standing American pastime, one that creeps closer and closer into Thanksgiving every year. For many Americans, it is accompanied by images of people shoving and trampling each other to get their hands on the hottest discounts, giving a redefined meaning to the term “door-buster.” And, according to the NRF, nearly 102 million consumers shopped in brick-and-mortar stores over the Black Friday holiday weekend this November, where the retail advertising buildup beforehand represented a billion plus dollars.

 

So, the decisive question remains—who were the retail winners and losers in the ultimate annual competition of reaching those 102 million consumers effectively? Placed and Kantar came together again to merge their intelligence and evaluate the amount of incremental store visits per dollar of advertising, measuring the success through the metric of ‘lift visits per ad dollar.’ This measure was then converted to an index scale, assigning an index of 100 to the highest lift visits per ad dollar and scaling all other values against it.

 

This year’s analysis revealed that consumers are on the prowl for the latest and greatest electronics, particularly when it comes to Black Friday deals. Best Buy came away as the winner: with $24.2 million of ad expenditures, Best Buy experienced a 125% lift in store visits, obtaining the top efficiency index of 100. In second place behind Best Buy comes JC Penney with an efficiency index of 75, claiming the top spot for the department store and mass merchandiser category. And when it came to the battle of Walmart vs. Target, it was pretty close: Walmart experienced an efficiency index of 65, with Target on Walmart’s tail with an index of 63.

2015_BlackFriday_TVAdSpend_StoreVisit (2)

 

The digital cousin of Black Friday, Cyber Monday has stolen some of the holiday shopping spotlight. Regardless, the 2015 findings highlight that pre-Thanksgiving advertising spend remains not just important, but actually successful in generating foot traffic—proving the reality of holiday retail: Black Friday isn’t dead, it’s just different. Download the full report here to learn more.

Placed and RetailMeNot Release First Annual “State of Holiday Shopping” Study

‘Tis the season for holiday spending forecasts, quick tips on how to save, endless recommendations on where to buy and when to shop. But as a new study from Placed and RetailMeNot finds, one word binds marketers, advertisers, and shoppers together in 2015: omnichannel. This first annual study surveyed over 10,000 respondents from Placed’s audience, taking a deep dive into the 2015 holiday shopping landscape. The insights inform retailers everywhere on how they can win consumer bucks, a challenge that becomes progressively more gigantic each year.

 

Fortunately for retailers though, the abundance of predictions for 2015 holiday spending are positive. With US consumers set to pay the cheapest prices for gas since 2008, according to the AAA, estimates for shopper spending is optimistically rising. “State of Holiday Shopping” found that nearly 82% of consumers plan to maintain or increase their holiday shopping budgets this year over 2014, setting the retail landscape to be one strong in numbers.

 

In fact, the study quantified just how optimistic retailers should be:

  • $492.72. The average amount consumers plan to spend on gifts.
  • 28%. The amount of shoppers who are planning to increase their holiday spending over 2014.
  • $159.13. The average increase in spend per shopper who is planning to spend more.

When asked how they envision how this holiday shopping spend to break out in terms of offline versus online in comparison to last year, consumers affirm the omnichannel holiday shift:

  • 25% of shoppers plan on doing more online shopping
  • 11% plan to do more in-store shopping this year over last year
  • 19% of shoppers plan to do more of both

In 2015, this omnichannel shopper shifts from minority to majority with 55% of consumers planning to holiday shop equally online and offline. In years past, marketers have watched as digital accelerated retail down the omnichannel path; now, this holiday season will pave 2015 as the year of the omnichannel shopper.

Charts-07

Download the White Paper for more key insights into the 2015 holiday shopper at www.placed.com/resources/white-papers/state-of-holiday-shopping-2015.

Black Friday Weekend: TV Ad Spend and Store Visits

This post is adapted from analysis written by Jon Swallen, Chief Research Officer, Kantar Media Ad Intelligence. Access the full analysis.

 

Advertising is a critical component of retailers’ strategies for drawing customers during the competitive holiday shopping season. As a result, retailers spent millions on advertising in the run-up to this year’s Black Friday sales events, hoping to get shoppers to visit them first on the big holiday weekend.

 

Who were the winners and losers in this slugfest? Which major retailers got a strong return for their advertising investment in the form of customer traffic and which ones lagged the pack?

 

Kantar Media Ad Intelligence and Placed Inc. have collaborated on an innovative analysis that merged their respective data on advertising expenditures and in-store visitor counts to provide an insightful metric – the “Cost Per Visitor Share” – for evaluating and comparing the results achieved by the top national retail chains over the entire four-day Thanksgiving weekend. This metric provides a new view into how well offline advertising helps drive in-store customer traffic.

 

Access the complete results to learn which retailers saw the most in-store traffic return on their TV ad investment during Black Friday weekend.

 

 

Cost Per Visitor Share on Black Friday Weekend

Black Friday Top Brick-and-Mortar Retailers: 2013 Winners

Black Friday, the biggest offline shopping day of the year, saw millions of shoppers hunt for deals at retailers across the U.S.

 

To better understand which retailers were most successful at driving people into stores on Black Friday, we analyzed offline shopping behaviors from our Placed Insights service, which measures more than 125,000 U.S. smartphone panelists who have opted-in to share their location.

 

The study revealed this year’s Black Friday winners:

 

  • Walmart was by far the top shopping destination this Black Friday, beating out its nearest competitor, Target, with more than twice the share of total shoppers.
  • Best Buy, which we reported secured a top spot in its Thanksgiving debut, remained a top destination for Black Friday shoppers ranking as the #3 most-visited retailer.
  • Retailers that chose to remain closed on Thanksgiving, including The Home Depot, Lowe’s, Sam’s Club, and Costco, lost no time in driving people into stores on Black Friday. All four retailers secured spots within the Black Friday Top 10.
  • Macy’s was the winner among department stores, ranking as the top gainer in week-over-week traffic share followed by J.C. Penney, Kohl’s, and Sears.
  • Big box and department stores weren’t the only ones that saw solid gains on Black Friday. Apparel and specialty retailers Old Navy and Victoria’s Secret, secured 2 of the top 3 spots in the top-gainers ranking.
  • American Eagle, which won last Black Friday, once again displayed a strong showing in store traffic on the busiest shopping day of the year.

Black Friday Top Retailers

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